FORD 400 from HOMESTEAD-MIAMI

My #5 driver to watch is the wildcard pick of the week, #29 Kevin Harvick. Kevin has 6 starts at this track and 3 Top 5 finishes including a 2nd place last year. Kevin is rated Top 5 on tracks like this.

The number #4 driver to watch is the one with the most wins at this track, #16 Greg Biffle. Greg has 3 wins in 6 starts on this configuration. Greg hasn’t had the season he thought he would have but a great finish here sets him up for 2010.

My #3 driver to watch has the highest average finish here, #99 Carl Edwards. Carl has just 5 starts here with 1 win and 3 Top 5 finishes. Carl is my 2nd driver from Roush/Fenway but this track is a “House of Roush”. Roush/Fenway drivers have won the last 5 races here. Carl is the defending champ of this race and he is the top rated driver on tracks like this.

My #2 pick is a driver who has everything to gain, #5 Mark Martin. Mark is 108 points behind leader Jimmie Johnson. Mark needs to get as many points as possible and hope that Jimmie comes up short. Mark finished 2nd here in 2005 and hopes to do that or better this year.

My #1 driver to watch is someone who really needs a win here #24 Jeff Gordon. Jeff can’t win the Championship BUT he can win at the only track he has never won at, Homestead-Miami Speedway. Neither Jeff nor his team Hendrick Motorsports have ever won because Roush/Fenway has dominated this track, but in a year where HMS has dominated over Roush it is not outrageous to think that it will happen here as well. Jeff has finished 4 out of 6 times here in the Top 5 and this year wants the win to put a period on a year that was less than great.

TOP 30 DRIVERS
FORD 400

1. JEFF GORDON #24
2. MARK MARTIN #5
3. CARL EDWARDS #99
4. GREG BIFFLE #16
5. MATT KENSETH #17
6. KEVIN HARVICK #29
7. JIMMIE JOHNSON #48
8. DENNY HAMLIN #11
9. MARTIN TRUEX #1
10. TONY STEWART #14
11. CLINT BOWYER #33
12. KASEY KAHNE #9
13. JOEY LOGANO #20
14. RYAN NEWMAN #39
15. CASEY MEARS #07
16. JEFF BURTON #31
17. JUAN PABLO MONTOYA #42
18. JAMIE MCMURRAY #26
19. DAVID RAGAN #6
20. DAVID REUTIMANN #00
21. KURT BUSCH #2
22. KYLE BUSCH #18
23. A.J. ALLMENDINGER #44
24. DALE EARNHARDT JR #88
25. DAVID STREMME #09*
26. REED SORENSON #43
27. BRIAN VICKERS #83
28. MARCOS AMBROSE #47
29. ELLIOTT SADLER #19
30. SCOTT SPEED #82*

*STILL MUST QUALIFY

Friday we break down the Top 5 drivers to watch.

TOP 10: DOWNFORCE TRACKS
1. CARL EDWARDS #99
2. JEFF GORDON #24
3. JIMMIE JOHNSON #48
4. GREG BIFFLE #16
5. KEVIN HARVICK #29
6. MATT KENSETH #17
7. TONY STEWART #14
8. KYLE BUSCH #18
9. DENNY HAMLIN #11
10. CLINT BOWYER #33
Top 10 on Downforce tracks, Thursday look for our Top 30 for Sunday’s FORD 400 from Homestead-Miami Speedway.

TOP 10 TEAMS POST PHOENIX
1. HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
2. STEWART HAAS RACING
3. JOE GIBBS RACING
4. RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING
5. ROUSH/FENWAY RACING

6. EARNHARDT GANASSI RACING
7. RICHARD PETTY MOTORSPORTS
8. MICHAEL WALTRIP RACING
9. PENSKE MOTORSPORTS
10. RED BULL RACING

The Top 10 stays the same this week for the first time this year. The teams have only one more chance to improve their position before the season ends. HMS should have no problem finishing the season in the #1 spot followed by SHR. JGR and RCR are very close and could flip spots before the season ends.

These are the Top 10 Owner/Teams, Wednesday look for our Top10 drivers on downforce tracks.

FORD 400

HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

November 22nd, 3PM EST ABC TV

1 Mile 20 Degrees of Banking

It doesn’t seem that long ago that 56 drivers showed up at Daytona in February to get in the Daytona 500. 13 drivers were eliminated in the duel races. 43 started the race hoping not only to win that race but kick off the 2009 season in the best way possible. Matt Kenseth won and left 42 drivers thinking we’ll try again next race. 14 different drivers found Victory Lane from 9 different owner teams. 9 races ago 12 drivers made it into the Chase for the Cup. 12 drivers in 10 races to decide the 2009 Nextel Cup Champion. 10 drivers have been mathematically eliminated, 2 drivers remain. Now after 35 points races it all comes down to this: Mark Martin sits 108 points back from the leader; a very distant chance at becoming champion, but still possible. It could happen, but isn’t very likely. The points leader Jimmie Johnson needs only to finish 25th or better to win the Cup regardless of what Mark Martin does. Bottom line, look for a top 10 finish from the 48 team. He started the season 31st at Daytona, lead a little during the season, and then fell back in points. Once the 10 race Chase began the #48 time got serious racking up 8 of 9 Top 10’s and 4 wins putting Jimmie right back on top; it will take a lot to take him out of the race or the race for the championship.

Checker Auto Parts 500 from PHOENIX

The number #5 driver to watch is the wildcard of the week and this week it is #29 Kevin Harvick. Kevin is a 2-time former winner here – he swept this track in 2006. 2 wins in just 13 starts is pretty strong. Kevin sits 21st in points and is hoping to end the season on a high note here in the desert.

My #4 driver to watch is another former winner, #14 Tony Stewart. Tony has 15 starts here – 1 win and 7 Top 5 finishes. Tony is only getting better here, half of his last 8 races were Top 5’s.

My #3 pick is a driver who has never finished better than third, #11 Denny Hamlin. Denny has 8 starts here and has finished 3rd three times, half of his starts have been Top 5’s. Denny is also my #4 rated driver on flat tracks.

My #2 driver to watch is the most recent winner here #5 Mark Martin. Mark won here earlier in the year. His last win before that was in 1993. Mark has an incredible 25 starts with those wins and 10 Top 5’s. More importantly 2 of his last 3 starts were Top 5’s. Mark sits 2nd in points, if he wants to make a run he needs a big day. He hopes he isn’t following….

My #1 pick this week is the driver who has the best average finish #48 Jimmie Johnson. Jimmie has 12 starts here, 3 wins and 7 Top 5’s – over half of his race here! His last 6 starts here were all Top 5’s and the last 8 were all Top 10’s. He is my #1 rated flat track driver and is ready to lock into his 4th Championship in the Valley of the Sun.

Monday look for our preview of the Ford 400 from Miami-Homestead.

CHECKER AUTO PARTS 500:PHOENIX

1. JIMMIE JOHNSON #48
2. MARK MARTIN #5
3. TONY STEWART #14
4. DENNY HAMLIN #11
5. JEFF GORDON #24
6. JEFF BURTON #31
7. KURT BUSCH #2
8. KEVIN HARVICK #29
9. GREG BIFFLE #16
10. CARL EDWARDS #99
11. MATT KENSETH #17
12. CLINT BOWYER #07
13. KYLE BUSCH #18
14. JOEY LOGANO #20
15. MARTIN TRUEX #1
16. JUAN PABLO MONTOYA #42
17. MARCOS AMBROSE #47
18. KASEY KAHNE #9
19. JAMIE MCMURRAY #26
20. DAVID REUTIMANN #00
21. DALE EARNHARDT JR #88
22. BOBBY LABONTE #71*
23. CASEY MEARS #07
24. BRIAN VICKERS #83
25. RYAN NEWMAN #39
26. SAM HORNISH #77
27. A.J. ALLMENDINGER #44
28. DAVID RAGAN #6
29. PAUL MENARD #98
30. REED SORENSON #43

*STILL MUST QUALIFY

Top 30 drivers, Friday we break down the Top 5 drivers to watch.

TOP 10: FLAT TRACKS
1. JIMMIE JOHNSON #48
2. JEFF GORDON #24
3. MARK MARTIN #5
4. DENNY HAMLIN #11
5. TONY STEWART #14
6. CARL EDWARDS #99
7. JEFF BURTON #31
8. GREG BIFFLE #16
9. KURT BUSCH #2
10. KEVIN HARVICK #29

Top 10 drivers on Flat tracks, Thursday look for our Top 30 rankings for Sunday’s Checker Auto Parts 500 from Phoenix Int Speedway.

TOP 10 TEAMS POST TEXAS
1. HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
2. STEWART HAAS RACING
3. JOE GIBBS RACING
4. RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING
5. ROUSH/FENWAY RACING

6. EARNHARDT GANASSI RACING
7. RICHARD PETTY MOTORSPORTS
8. MICHAEL WALTRIP RACING
9. PENSKE MOTORSPORTS
10. RED BULL RACING

The Top 2 spots stay the same again this week. JGR moves up3 spots to #3. RCR moves up 1 spot to #4. Roush/Fenway slips back 2 spots to #5. Earnhardt/Ganassi Racing jumps back 2 spots to #6. RPM stays steady at #7. MWR trades places with Scuderia Penske. Red Bull Racing stays the same.

These are the Top 10 Owner/Teams, Wednesday look for our Top10 drivers on flat tracks.

CHECKER AUTO PARTS 500
PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY
November 15th, 3PM EST ABC TV
1 Mile Turn 1&2 11 Degrees of Banking, Turn 3&4 9 Degrees of Banking
What a place to help decide the Sprint Cup Championship, a 1 mile flat track: a track where every turn is slightly different. There is no such thing as “get your car right and cruise around”. Most drivers have a good set up for turns 1 & 2 or for turns 3 & 4. Some try to get a compromise in between both and some drivers are simply trying to find any set up that gets them fast and keeps them off the wall. No matter what your strategy is this track can be very, very tough. Rookies typically struggle here. From the points perspective it would appear it is a shootout between #48 Jimmie Johnson and #5 Mark Martin. If they both have trouble early then #24 Jeff Gordon could have a shot at the Championship. Jimmie Johnson ranks highest for us as a flat track driver, Jeff Gordon is the hottest, and Mark Martin is the most recent winner. The next Champion will be a driver who had a top 10 here in the desert.

Tuesday look for our Top 10 Owner /driver rankings.